Daily trading strategies for HUPX
Day ahead forecast report for Hungarian power exchange is published at 08:30 CET, with 10:00 CET update (PDF, excel and email notification). In addition to hourly price forecast, aim of daily reports is also to provide spot traders with all the data and analytics they might need for day-ahead trading, live power plants outage info and all other information relevant for spot trading. HUPX + SEE Spot Support report also includes Week-ahead HUPX forecast.
Subscription fee: 400 EUR per month, company licensed.
Working with fundamental factors
The market price is dominantly determined by fundamental elements of the market, i.e. by the consumption, cross border capacities, available generation and the cost of generation.
Working with human factors
Behavior of people makes a huge impact on HUPX price. We model behavior of traders on certain market conditions in order to fine tune the HUPX price forecast. The most influential human factors which make an impact on HUPX price and which we model daily are:
Working with neighboring markets
Spot support takes into account expected prices on Czech, German/Austrian and Italian markets which do not belong to the HUPX region, but do make an impact on HUPX price realization and behavior of traders.
Our HUPX DAY-AHEAD forecast shows the expected price expectation for the whole HUPX price region. Hourly prices HUPX prices will deviate from our forecast depending on the:
Such effects can only be partially forecasted and modeled since they depend too much on behavior of traders.
However, in the long term, average HUPX DAY-AHEAD spot support forecasts should reflect the realized HUPX day ahead price.